200734գţѧɭNiall FergusonӢյѶģ״ˡͬ塱Chinamericaĸһʱ䣬ȫΡG2Ϊȵ㡣ʱ˲óסƼģijͻ ֮ԭʲôŷ̧ͷĸԴʲôйõijչǷȻᵼȷҵĽһȫǽǻᵹˣЩDZĽҪۼݡЩƺ⣬ѾÿһϢϢءĽӡȫӽǣյľ档 ȫۺϹǿĹҡһǿʢĹȣ˳ģ̇ͷԴܵĴֱۣӱΪڲƽȳ̶ȵĶ²ھˮƽˡ201611ա⡱ѡ²㲻̫ĵҵӢײ㣬Ҳʼעȥʮڡȫоɹƺȫóϵչ˼ ˮʼ𡤴£Ray Dalio20171023շһƪо桶ľá⡷Our Biggest Economic, Social and Political IssueܹЧİľءڴ˽ŷѧߵĹ۵Щѧ߰ѧءǣRobert Gordon辭ѧԺ˹Ƥ٣Thomas PikettyʡѧԺڡŵѧء壨Robert Soroݴѧά˹Уڱ˵áֵأPeter H. Lindert˹ѧڡֶءˣRobert Reich¹ооԱˡErik E. LehmannԼѧڵᡤˣDani Rodrik һƶ״ 2017оУڴӾϻΪǰ40%Top 40%ͺ60%Bottom 60%Ⱥ1980ʵʼͥλȻƽǰ40%ȺļͥƽǺ60%Ⱥͥƽ4ں60%ȺУֻ1/3ܹ봢ֽʲķʽҲ40%˶ڡ¹塱״̬κ롣 ƤоģPew Research Center2014һ棬1983-201330䣬λں33%˵ʵʲƸֵʵ½11,400Ԫ9,300Ԫλв46%ȺʵʲƸֵ30һֱͣͲǰ94,300Ԫ96,500Ԫλǰ21%ȺʵӵеƽƸ30䷭һ318,100Ԫ639,400Ԫǣ2018 Ƥ˸Ϊϸµое10%Ⱥӵȫʱ70%һΪе1%ȺӵУ10%Ⱥ֮µв40%ȺӵȫʱĴԼ25%кܴǷʣ50%ĵײȺֻӵȫʱ5%Ƥ٣2014پĻߵ0.01%Ⱥǵ70%ʱߵ1%Ⱥǵ60%Ͷ룬Ҫǿ˾߹ܡڼҺͳǵͶ루壬2015ЩˣҲ˾CEOнͨ˹ʵıʣ196520:12014300:11978-2013꣬CEOн937%ͨ˵Ĺʽ10.2%ˣ2016 Ͼǽƶ״ 2019523ij鱨ʾFederal Reserve Board issues Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households2019.5.23Ҫ֧400Ԫʱ39%ıֽ𡢴ÿķʽ֧27%ıҪ˽߳ԼƷӦ400ԪĽ֧ʣ12%ıȫӦ400ԪĽ֧2013ͬʾԺã50%ıӦЩƽĽ֧ ĴۻϡҽƷ档 µıָ60%ȺУֻ1/3ļͥӵݽ˻ζ60%Ⱥ2/3ļͥûݽ˻Щӵݽ˻ĺ60%ȺϽ˻401(k)˻ƽ2Ԫ 棬ǰ40%Ⱥڽϵ֧Ǻ60%Ⱥ4ǰ40%Ⱥѧծstudent debtֻռܸծ5%60%ȺѧծȴҪռܸծ17% ıƱҵн70%Уʱծƽծ3.5Ԫ1/8ıҵڱҵҪġѧ5Ԫ2016꣬δ峥4,330ѧУҵҵѧܼƳ1.3Ԫ40%ѧѾǷΥԼɣ˹2018֧²㸺أҵIJήǨ²ҵIJխʵij½ʹ²ɥʧĺϣ ϣɥʧʹΪΨһһʲҪҵҡں60%Ⱥԣpremature death2000˴Լ20%ҪԭǶƷ/ҩж20002ɱ200050%ϣǶ֪ڴһ21͵ġѻƬսҲй̸ʱҪƷ̫ΪҪԭ ҩﶾƷĸԴҵĴ˿ʵЧҵ֪ʶöԽĸͶЩܳܵģǵһѱδ֮⡣ ʤѡ˵ı衷һѸdzش80J.D. VanceԴ˾²ڽ״ʧҵơձʹķǻŮѾɹҵձ鵽˾ȵĵزҪ֪Щ1980֮ǰҵġVanceͨԼŬҮ³ѧԺѧҵıԼ켣ֶܹͨܵԼľ ֮⣬ҽƳɱߵķ֮һҲΨһûʵҽĴ2016ʱ2,800˲ҽɣ˹2018ǰɰ°ġƽҽƷδܿǵ60%ȺеԪ֧ڲѡʱΪ൱ѡƱ ˽Ǹ𣿵ֻе˽ʵΪʲô²ͬշϳƽҽƷΪʲôԸֶвҵӱ˵Ĺ롢вҵҵλʱ²֧֣ҲΪʲôһߵΪйȫ˵ķʱջ²ͬҪĵǣ۵ȷܽ ˥𣿲ûСGDPȻ߾һ2018Fortune 500У126ҵȻλеһ൱ִڸ߶˲ҵȻǸ߿ƼǿоƬ֮⣬ڹ졢ϡҩоơĻȻǿĻȻһУлҵԪңǽȻһԪϵСĸԣ̶Ȼҵ߹ܶǧԪнӪƻŶְҲܸߴԪΪ2008ΣߵĻ־Ӣǣtoo big to fallľδܵ㹻ԼΥеķɺͽⷽʽͿԽء Խ⾿һڵIJƸ⣿֮IJƸ⣿ֻܿȫܽ⣬ǿĸȫĹϵܽ⣿ ʷijɾ뵱µ ڶԾ״IJǻںıȽϣǻʵʷıȽϡ20͵ijɾͣڳһҵǻijЩƼȣҲڽƻʵνԪȨ 20͵ijɾͣΪһ壬˾÷չ貳ɹվȫǰСǽһܹȫĸԴڡ 1900꣬ԳʱԤֻ48꣬ǰֻ33꣬1940ֵ꣬Ѿֱ63ͺ52꣬Ҫ鹦ҽϵĽռ1900꣬ÿ100ֻͥ0.11940ֵ꣬ﵽ93ͥʱӵеȻռȫ78%ճļҵ磬ϴ»ȣ1970ռѽӽ100%ǣ2018 ĸбҵʴ19006%ߵ197080%1944䲼ġȨݼȫ1,610սսߣΪЩսṩȫѧãǣ201820ҶĸߵȽӽѡ1965һƹѧƽѧ243ԪߵȽ顪Ǵѧϵͳֱ1980ſʼѧѡ˼ͥŮȫеƽߴ3.5Ԫѧɣ˹20181980ͨݶŷ֪ʶȨ·䣬оȡõķרȨתƸʵʴ¸оĴѧɴѧЩ֪ʶʵҵƶ˾õĴ·չ ЩƶȣΪ֮ĿƼº˳ԴƶӶսǰĹ˽ײתΪ֮вײᡣ һ˽ԿʵǵĽݣǡΡܹʵֵĸԭ 1955꣬Ƹ־״οʼͳ500ǿҵһͳѳ60꣬ǴпĿҵıǨ鿴ͼ ǽҵΪͳҵ˼ҵҵ͡ҵĻԵó±鿴ͼ
ǿĿ1955һֱ1980ͳҵĴҵռFortune 50070%ϡҵΪĵĴͳҵͶʱҲڵƽʱҲǡΡӰȫʱ1990Ǹֽߣ˺ͳҵڴҵеıؿʼ½ҵ˼ҵıؿʼ1995ҵڡͳҵı״½50%£ڴ˺20ά45%ңҵ˼ҵڴ˺ֱά15%20%ҡ ͬҵͶ˿ڵı仯ȫƥġ ҵͶ˿ڱ1953ﵽ30%Ķ壬2015꣬һ½10%ǣ2018ҵͶȥأҵ˼ҵڶľҵȺ1990ʼֵ̳ۡȷҵҵȺҵĹޡǰԿ1995̳ۡҵʼռFortune 50010%ҵıءڣͨԱԣЩҵҵĹḣˮƽǰڵҵҵܶҵְλֻ㹤ģʽֶԱҲܵҵҵḣ2015128յһݱָŤת棬ôδ1010ְҵУ7DzҪѧƾĵְҵɣ˹2018 ˣѧ硢绹۽磬۵ɺι۵ΣѾʶҵλĴʧʹ²㾭ôĹؼڡԽľӢʿʼӴֳɵоѰĴ𰸡 ȥ60IJҵǨĿǰȻռ鼰۵Ľǣȫƽһ㻯ҵΣڵȷһչICT˼ҵռ߶˲ҵ棬ڴͳҵҪҵܵƷijȷҵЩҵʼʵʩ飬Ϊ˽ͳɱDzԱǴԱDzϽЩֱӵ²㹤ɥʧձ½ ܹó˵侲ĶͳͼλҪͳѡ˵ι۵㣬ԷǶΪ²ҵɥʧйҵأͬʱйӡȡī¹ձҵҵλӰĹңѾҪԵķΧ֮ڡ۾Ƿܹ⣬οںŵȷӦ²֮ڶԣȡѡƱġڣڵƶĿǰȫóϵȻµĽͨиҵڵЩԽ ¹ պйĺĹ۵ڣΪйWTO֮ȫ̷شת䣬Ϊйҵͨȡ֪ʶȨȨʵҵķչʹҵܾʧӶòȡöԼļǻΪйͨеIJѹԴ۸ʹҵòҵйӶйʵ˾õΪйѧЭġΪµĽǽҵΪĵҵĴ½ȶнԹλʧӶǡ˵ı衱ȥǽȫóϵ²ĿѣԵձʾҪ˳WTOʱȫκξȡ ˺ǣΪʲôܵĽ²㣬ϲΪܹߣΪʲôӢײIJƸȻڼأ ͺԣҵ½йԵijɹ£ôܵȻӦֻЩȽйгȴǿĹңǷӦܵ˸ijأЩҵҵλǷӦһʧأЩǷΪйóԼΪйת͵䱾²̮أ վȫĽǶ֮⣬۷·һЦ ҵʼܵȫ˥ʱϲ㾫ӢǸûйĹǵ²ͬڼǰǻһйΪҵ˥ҵ˲ٺɡ2013610գ˹־ڡΪʲôҵҪWhy Manufacturing Doesnt MatterһҵʱҪһȥǼ봴¾ʱҵΪijƷ˼룬ǻ۲ƲʤһС2014123գҵܿڡȥĹְλɡFactory Jobs Are Gone: Get Over ItһᵽԹҪȱݵľѧڸʱʱβʲͳùίԱϯľѧ2003ݽиڣҵҵ½ѸһɱܡĽΪǴҵϿijƣǼʮǰũҵ۵ľ˰°ʱΪͳùίԱԱ֥Ӹѧѧڹ˹ȣAustan GoolsbeeҲΪҵŵľҵ֧ԽԽС֤dzЧʡũҵǡþͬĹ̡Mandel2012 ŷ˲ûôֹۡǰͳ棺ֹͣɻʹΰĹȡ߱ȥҵʱ¹ȻءҵռGDPݶ13%Ӣ12%ʱ¹ҵռGDPıȻ߳һﵽ21%2018¹Դ201925շġ¹ҵս2030УȷսĿ꣬2030ʱҵڵ¹ŷ˵ֵܶGVAռıطֱ25%20%ҲѾӣͬΪң¹Ȼڸͭ豸ͻе졢ЩͳġȻ˥˵ҵռȫȵλҪǣ¹йгҪйгҪǿööࡣ ڽͺרУйҵλʧҪԭƺȫ֪йյһС̫֣280ҵ¹ҵʹԼ200Ϊʲô¹ܹ밶ijҵϱ־ͬʱάֱĹλн긣 ŷѧ罫¹ɹعΪ¼棨2018 һdzСҵҵչԶսǰҵΪ¹ڼʮȫгһҵιھҵȫ3700ҵιھҵУ¹ӵ1300ң300ҡձ200ҡй60ңЩҵιھΪ¹ṩ˴нźľҵλ ǵ¹صĽơ¹ҵɴУSparkassenУGenossenschaften˽֧ɣǰ߸СҵṩĴԼռܶ2/3֧ľӪܵϸԼӶ˵Ķȹ2008ΣУLandesbankenΪеУ¹к͵ΪеУʵʩԤṩڱֵ밶ʵȸӵĽڷЩܵйϵܵŴʽϸߣڰȫԵԱϡ е˫Ԫơڵ¹ҵͨԱһ㲻ϴѧͨѧͽʵ־ҵԼ342ϿɵѧͽְҵṩĹ˾ڲѵͿýѧһʱһְҵѧУ2013꣬140¹ѧ1,559ְҵѧУѧͽѵʱһ뵽룬ȫְ201325-34ĵ¹ֻ28%ܹרѧҵҵԱѧͽΪҵṩ˺ʵͶԴҲٽ˾ҵ ʹľƶȡΪӢģʽ֮һʹһֱǵ¹˫ܹ÷չĻʯƶȡ˵ƶʲôûöµģΪľȫԹɶΪȵľģʽ˽²ľ档йѧͷѧо߶Ե¹ʹоDzģй˾леֲ»ƶȡʵϣ¹ʹһϵͳİţݵκܷ֮ǰҲ¹ʷγɵгģʽֲ¹ͳֱųӢģʽԹɶΪȵɶ㡢ԱβҵΪһ忼ǡʵϣγɵĸƶ붫Ǹʷ;ϰߴڸ߶һԣֵýһоġ ⣬¹ԻʩӡȫгĿų̶ȣȫµ¹ȻǿҪԭ ڵ¹ֿ̽ԻشijЩͺ۵һDZ⣬һȽֱйгҵйķңǷΪйȫͱȻʹľҵλʧӶ±壿䲻ϵĽΪʲôйûЩΪЩͺǵڻشΪʲôĹģȴ ġȫ ͻֱԭҪѡٴΰijŵٴΡ²ڶԣǻָ1990֮ǰٹ⡣²ѹձжҵҵָԼҷѣͬʱҪս϶йijھ֡ʵϣĹʻ²ڽٵľ⣬Ӧȫʧ£ѿǣгԭּijȫһֱȴƽġ Ϊȫгеʿ֮һΡ˹George Soros2002ָȫȱݡ˹Ϊȫͻص֮һʱ֮£ԱܴܵơʱҪɲ֣˸ʱ˰Ƶ˹ΪгȫʹսֵĸұòʱˣΪҪᱣϵDz뿪ңΪҹȥ˰ʱȴ뿪ġ⣬Ȼȫ˴ҵҵIJŸɣʹ¼١ȫҲڲӰ죬һˣǷҵˣܵȫ˺ͬʱֵòᰲȫı˱ȫгԵȫ˽˲ƷƷ֮Դ䲻гڴƸĿ겢ҪƻֵͻȫгΣ˹Ϊ гΣյġгΪԸлͷɽṩģгӦ編ɺάгƱת֮ļҪгҲȷṫЩƷֻͨηʽṩ˹2002 Ϊȫص㣬ͬȫĹңȻʱЧʵΪ⽫ЩҵʱܹøرһҲȡгԭּ壬ҲΪȫгڡԤѡʱʱĴ羳ͶʡʵҵĴ羳ͻΪʵȫʷУʱѰȫᡢԿҵѰȫʵ жڲرЩںʵҵҵȷʵܹʵָIJֵ²ҵͱҵþΪ۵ġֻЩҵжԱҵṹʵҵʵ죬ȷλܹЧڣǼͨԱȡڲȷҺҵŻȫʹҵɶԱϵ˻ùͬ档 ҲΪʲôȻ¹ձҵйΪأںͷﱾְλȴ˿٣һСӦ̳չ֮ϣҵͨúڽйī˥䣬Ϊ2008ΣǰҳڽɻӰ죬ʵʩ˶ԪսԣֱڽΣʱѰͼ۳ʲ¡ 죬йȺһ˵йȫİϣͨйȫʵйõķչεйûаԸʵˣйʮʧҪìʶ̬ġֽȫһܺߵλʮֿЦȫĹУĿҵ߲ͽҵڷȫ²ʮǰͿʼЩϲ㾫ӢʱйʱҲ棬Щʼٸ߽ϻλйⲻı˺״˵ԼȫʳҵijйһɣıڲʱֻⲿìΪתעķʽˣھкܶ˲˼Խܡ û㹻棬ĸһӱڵȥ˽İĹҷչXʮꣿѵһδ˶Ӧĵ йȫûдۡЩĴ֮ԱǣΪйΪ˾÷չάڲȶڶʮǰйȫʱԴҵ¸ڡϹ䡢֮ı·Ϊ۵ġǽ첻ҲӦЩΪйȫIJҵˣ4050֮йδᱣƶ֮ʱҪڣξڣֻͷصĴۣйںķչʮֹעĸȶԺЭԡҲΪʲôйִҵңȻҪȸʵֹͬԣĸ↑Ṳʶ ѧҲΪֹҪһȫȫۡ DzӵгȫͬʱӵƶȺȨȡˣ2011˵ġȫǡ̵ۣԤȫʹʱΪɱͶʲӶʹҵλʧ²ֲӰʱ²ͨѡƱʼսͳ֪Ʊ־ЩʵıڣԽֱıォΪѡûؾҵᣬЩѡͻַ֧֡ͨʽòЩҵʱξͻ̵ҵ⡣ Ȼԭأѵȫȷѡ 塢ԭ ²⣬ȫҲκιռıˣԼҵĻְλIJҵṹûԼȫ̽еҵͽҵصְҵƶ£ڸ棬ԱͲҵε档ǽгģʽʹĵ¹ģʽжͳձģʽȽϣǿԺĿгԭּʱ˺Ѷ˺ѵĿж οֶءˣڡʱ塷һнʮķ ˴ӲƲ¢ϡͬƲִл棬ԴʵĴҵͨѴʽ˵ŸıϸĹؼߣʵ˴ҵȡ 磬ҩ۾Ӹ߲µһԭǷɽֹǿȨнҩ۵̸У߰ҩζҽҩҵͱҵзרЧҲûֹҩ۵½ΪҩֻҪҪרڵҩƷСĸı䣬ͿչҩƷרɣҽ˿ҩʱҽҩ˾ҽṩ꣬Ȼҩ۸½°ġƽҽƷʵûץסĹؼÿ˵Ͷάֲҵ档 磬ڹȥ20Удչ˾پһƲƲĿģͨӱ֮ǰɵĺԼҵÿ˾˵ġƲУͶͬͨȿǵĶ˺չ˾ƲΪҪЮʹɼнЭ飬Ϊ˾Ͷɱĸ߹ܣȴͬʱһݾ߹Ͻƻ ǣƲֹסѺƲζ2008ΣֿͨеijͷֽܻƷ˺700ڣȴֹꡣͬƲģѧ ֹͨijʱضҵͨ˵Ⲧ㹻ӰִʳƷҵ˵ᣬʹʳƷȫִִٵÿʵִС ڴǰıУѾᵽ1995ҵнҵʵϣҵ»ҵĹȷչǽصġ2008ĽΣֳʵ徭ѾȫڻǷزǿҵͨúȽӵGEȣһʼԪͶʺͶڻر ҵĸ룬ŤԴ۸ѧƵ˲ȫۼ⾭֮¡2008ΣǰϦѧһıҵͶ֣ҵѯ2010Ͷʽڽ˹ٴѧҵ60% ǽĿ˾ְҵȫʱʵԼ档ҵӪʱѵķͨü˹ɱʵʩﵽʹҵҵĿġְҵ˷ıȨҹάֹ˾ɼ۾ͳΪһҪԼǾӪ״õĹ˾ӵдֽǰ£Ϊάֹɼ۴ӶȷԼȨ棬ʽڻعƱͶзѡǰߡ˾߹ʱгڴͬ棬Ϊʲôŷѧߣоƶʱˡsupermanagerĸ ǽģʽչָǵij²ĸԴʲôأҵó˾ܽЩ ƺˣǿǶԶԼֶԭҵԱͬЭ˹壩ôʣڽʵ״£ڶԣȫ˰߾ҵȫأԹ˰вʹĹҲԼ²棬ȥľӢȥֲǰΪгȫ²ɵ˺𣿲ڲƶȳȥʵڲƸƽ⣬ǼϣͨոԼĹ⣬ҵˣ δ˥䣬ȻǿѾڲĿǰȻ⣬ڲԽңڲתԸԽУ˲ΪȥйȻ 죬ǴһȫʱҪǻͶ뵽ʱСҪиΪȫҵЩйǮȴҪеν߿ƼҵЩҵѵûйijЩʱʣӶͬŤԴļ۸жҵѧͶںͻҵЩҵձнһǿɳ𣿻ǽΪǰڵزڵʱĿ羳£ҪμȫеĽѵҪ¹ѧϰڲҵĹУҵĻڹڣ㲿ֲҵתƣҲҪͨ콫ҵĹౣڹڡǵĽҪĸı䣬Ҫ˽ļȨͶֶڵģʽȥ֧Ҫȶֵ֧ҵչʱֻϵĻٻǵʵ壬ҵҺͿƼԱıԶŤѾŤͶ۸ҪƶϾǽܻ൱ιھҵڲԸͨеķʽʣǵҵϢҪΪЩҵijծȨ˹ͬǶȹһһȫڡ ȫһױ裬Ҳһ衣ȫȫͬչϣҲȺ˳ȫ⣬гԭּȫģЩҪͬӦԣٷȰ֮䣬ԣڲûκΪй߹ĵ·иԵ⣬ûκΪйȫжԱʩеĺǴģûκΪйĸǺġӦңйȫûвʽгԭּ壬˽ĸ֡ Դģϣ˸侲ǿ ϡ οϣ 1ѧءǣRobert Gordon䡷ų棬2018 2辭ѧԺ˹Ƥ٣Thomas Piketty21ʱۡų棬2014 3ʡѧԺڡŵѧء壨Robert Soroݴѧά˹Уڱ˵áֵأPeter H. Lindert<21ʱ>Ҫ֪һСų 4˹ѧڡֶءˣRobert Reichʱ塷ų棬2016 5¹ооԱˡErik E. Lehmann¹߸ܡų棬2018 6ѧڵᡤˣDani Rodrikȫۡйѧ磬2011 7ͳѡ˲ɣ˹Bernard Sandersǵĸշճ磬2018 8Michael Mandel, The Myth of American ProductivityWashington Monthly Feb 2012 ŹںţڲΡ߸˹۵㣬ѶͶ߾ݴ˲Ե α༭˼ (责任编辑:) |